Tuesday, March 19, 2013

The rise of the global South

19-Mar-2013, Al Jazeera

What lessons can countries like the United States learn from the prosperity of the South?
 
In the next seven years, Brazil, China and India's combined economic output will surpass that of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the UK and the US put together.

And by 2030, 80 percent of the world's middle class population will be living in developing countries.
 
But the United Nations Human Development report, which was released in Mexico last week, says that economic growth alone is not enough to improve lives.

It says sustained progress needs "pro-poor policies and significant investment in people's capabilities." And it points to countries like Brazil and Mexico which have implemented social programmes that have lifted tens of millions out of poverty.

But as many developing countries actively work on reducing poverty and inequity, countries in the northern hemisphere are implementing austerity policies causing millions to suffer.

What can countries like the US learn from the prosperity of the South? And what does help regions like Latin America progress?

Earlier this week, Shihab Rattansi spoke with Khalid Malik, the lead author of the UNDP's 2013 Human Development Report, to examine the rise of the global south. He also talked to Richard Buery, the president of the Children's Aid Society about preventative programmes to help the poor.

Joining Inside Story Americas are guests: Branko Milanovic, the lead economist at the World Bank's Research Department; Sylvia Allegretto, the co-chair of the Center on Wage and Employment Dynamics at the University of California, Barkeley; and Swarnim Wagle, one of the authors of the UNDP's 2013 Human Development Report.

"The Human Development Index (HDI) is a well-rounded measure of development, it tries to capture the quality of life, the livelihoods that people lead, not just through the incomes they earn, but also the kind of lives they have reason to value and choose, and what they are able to do with the capabilities that they have been able to build up. So the notion of Human Development is actually much broader than what we measure in the HDI, so we reduce this broad expansive notion of human development … We sort of look at three keys constituents, the first one is income, it allows you to do many things, is a means to achieving many things that we value in life, second is education, which is a proxy for the kind of knowledge people can access and utilise to enrich their own lives, and the third is health which we measured by life expectancy, how long, how productive lives people can lead."


Swarnim Wagle, one of the authors of the UNDP's 2013 Human Development Report

 

Friday, January 25, 2013

The E-mail that Caused Panic at UBS


The E-mail that Caused Panic at UBS

Here's the email sent by UBS trader Kweku Adoboli to internal bank accountant William Steward advising that things might not be the way they seemed. Soon after, the shit really hit the fan.


'Dear Will,
It is with great stress that I write this mail. First of all the ETF (Exchange Traded Funds) trades that you see on the ledger are not trades that I have done with a counterparty as I previously described.

I used the bookings as a way to suppress the PnL losses that I have accrued through off-book trades that I made. Those trades were previously profit making, became loss making as the market sold off aggressively though the aggressive sell-off days of July and early August.


Initially, I had been short futures through June and those lost money when the first Greek confidence vote went through in mid-June. In order to try and make the money back I flipped the trade long through the rally.

Although I had a couple of opportunities to unwind the long trade for a negligible loss, I did not move quickly enough for the market weakness on the back of the first back macro data and then an escalation Eurozone crisis cost me the losses you will see when the ETF bookings are cancelled. The aim had been to try and make the money back before the September expiry date came through but I clearly failed.

These are still live trades on the book that will need to be unwound. Namely a short position in DAX futures [which had been rolled to December expiry] and a short position in S and P 500 futures that are due to expire on Friday.

I have now left the office for the sake of discretion. I will need to come back in to discuss the positions and explain face to face, but for reasons that are obvious, I did not think it wise to stay on the desk this afternoon.

I will expect that questions will be asked as to why nobody else was aware of these trades. The reality is that I have always maintained that these were EFP trades to the member of my team, BUC, trade support and John Di Bacco (Adoboli’s manager).

I take full responsibility for my actions and the stilt storm that will now ensue. I am deeply sorry to have left this mess for everyone and to have put my bank and my colleagues at risk.

Thanks, Kweku'




Bonus Watch ’13: Credit Suisse

Bonus Watch ’13: Credit Suisse
23-Jan-13, Dealbreaker
By Bess Levin

“CS bonus communication day. Equities research, bonuses down 25%. Analysts, 10k base (70k-90k) bump , zero to 10k bonuses. Associates, many no base (110k-160k, lowered from 175k) increase, 0-20k bonuses. Mood is somber but many already had very low expectations.”